Issuance focus: inflation-linked bonds

The Australian and New Zealand sovereigns were the only issuers in the Australasian government sector to place inflation-linked bonds in 2016. Both remain committed to the product, but there is little sign of an explosion in issuance breadth or depth.

CRAIG Inflation-linked issuance has been relatively subdued in recent years, and has come from a small number of government-sector issuers. Is the apparently changing economic environment making linker issuance more appealing to those issuers that consider it?

JONES Inflation-linked bonds is a product we are very comfortable with as part of our funding mix, because of the fiscal variability offsets it provides and the investor diversification benefits it offers.

When we reintroduced the product in 2012, we noted that we would be committed to the product – and we remain so. An element of commitment is the provision of regular supply through tender to support ongoing liquidity. The New Zealand Debt Management Office is very comfortable with its current approach.

ROB NICHOLL

We sit here with the same curiosity as everyone else as we hear pontifications around the reflation story. If this emerges presumably there will be a resurgence in demand for linker product, and if this happens we will be glad that we kept the market open.

ROB NICHOLL AUSTRALIAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

BISHOP Inflation-linked bonds have always at the forefront of our issuance considerations. There are certainly some investors out there who would like us to issue an inflation-linked bond.

However, we would need to ensure we have a natural inflation exposure – though to some extent I think we do. It is a product we have not actually issued to date but we will consider it more over the next two or three years.

JOHN Over the last couple of months especially, we have seen investor interest in inflation-linked bonds increase – including more enquiry about whether we are interested in issuing. It seems to be a topic of focus now given we expect to see inflation becoming a more significant market dynamic in the next few years.

NICHOLL We expect to complete the 2016/17 funding year with modest linker issuance volume – around A$3 billion (US$2.3 billion).

There were some times when we thought achieving this level was going to be challenging. But, with the benefit of hindsight over the first 6-7 months of the year, our auctions have all had good outcomes and been well covered and supported, albeit they have raised only limited volume. But linker market performance generally has given us the confidence that we are in the neighbourhood of using the right approach to maintaining the linker market.

We retain flexibility in issuance volume and new maturities though, and should we get strong feedback that the market requires an increase in supply in the coming months we can consider responding to this. But we have not seen this yet. We have the same curiosity as everyone else regarding the reflation story. If this emerges presumably there will be a resurgence in demand for linker product.

BUTCHER The New Zealand Local Government Funding Agency has not sold inflation-linked bonds and issuing linkers does not fit with our stated strategy of issuing large, liquid lines of conventional bonds matching government maturities.

BUSH Inflation-linked issuance is not currently on our radar.

TRIGONA We have not issued linkers for a long time, which reflects the activity of our borrowing clients. New South Wales Treasury Corporation will inform the market of any updates to its inflation-linked programme if demand from our borrowing clients changes. We have no immediate intention to issue inflation-linked bonds.

WHITFORD This is not a space in which Treasury Corporation of Victoria has much interest as our customers don’t require long-term inflation risk. We are very focused on making sure all our issuance is positioned in the right part of our domestic benchmark curve to make sure we support liquidity. Anything we do outside of this will reduce liquidity, which is not something we want to do.

KENNEDY South Australian Government Financing Authority does not have any inflation-linked liabilities so this form of issuance does not suit us.

COLLINS We had one client in the past which had internal requirements for inflation-linked funding, but this was some time ago and this interest has since dissipated. We have therefore not issued inflation-linked product for two or three years.

The demand came to us in small amounts, irregularly and in different maturities. So rather than create an illiquid series of lines we used our fixed lines and overlaid derivatives to meet this need. At the time we were doing this there were even cost advantages to issuing this way. We will continue to monitor this but for the moment there is no compelling reason for us to issue linkers.