Progress and Decommissioning

It is widely understood that progress to net zero in the Australasian power system will not be a straight-line journey. Understanding the difference between natural lumpiness and stalled progress may be key to measuring speed of delivery.

DAVISON AGL Energy’s climate transition action plan is only one year old, so is it too early to judge progress so far? How linear do you think transition progress will be?

LI Our development pipeline of renewables has been progressing really well. When we announced the climate action transition plan in September 2022, we had about 3.3 gigawatts of renewables and firming in the pipeline. Since then, it has grown by more than 60 per cent, to 5.3 gigawatts.

The team has been working hard through discussions with the independent power developers and about power purchase agreement structures. There is a lot of emphasis from the board and management on trying to get things done as quickly as we can.

There are several challenges. We have talked about policy certainty and clarity, which is very important so everyone can get on with investment decisions. But there are also supply chain issues and inflation. We are competing with the rest of the globe for materials and skilled workers, as well as the minerals needed to build batteries.

We have reached final investment decision on the battery project we are building on the Liddell site. This is a 500 megawatt, two-hour battery worth about A$700 million (US$467.2 million). It will be about two years before full operation. We are also exploring offshore wind farm projects. Overall, the plan is progressing well – we are doing as much as we can as fast as we can. But there are challenges and constraints, no doubt about it.

HOWELL Is Tiwai Point still a big long-term issue for New Zealand?

SUTHERLAND It presents challenges but, overall, I think it is an opportunity for the rest of the country. Tiwai Point, an aluminium smelter, takes about 13 per cent of New Zealand’s electricity generation, which is predominately renewable and from a large hydro station, Manapōuri, at the bottom end of the South Island. If this is freed up and flows into the electricity system, it will significantly increase the amount of renewable energy, and likely decrease the cost of electricity, in New Zealand.

On the other hand, I imagine the prospect of electricity prices falling is challenging for further renewables investment in New Zealand. We don’t know when the aluminium smelter will close. Several years ago, the plan was December 2024 – but I understand this is no longer the case and it could be there for some time yet.

This uncertainty is challenging for investment in new electricity generation in New Zealand. But the other thing to recognise is that the transition of vehicles and process heat to renewable electricity should lead to increased demand and provide more investment certainty.

Ahead of the potential closure of the aluminium smelter, there has already been work in the South Island to upgrade transmission lines and increase capacity to transmit electricity. Constraints that might have existed in the past have been alleviated.

DAVISON Are any councils in New Zealand investing in reducing their own grid reliance? For example, could it be possible for a council to have solar generation and storage to power an electric vehicle fleet?

HOWELL I have not seen anything like this of significance. One of the buildings we have financed – the Whangārei Council Civic Centre – has solar panels on the roof, but this is only to power the building and nothing else. It is perhaps more relevant to councils that have links to airports. Christchurch Airport, for example, has big solar plans.

Among our green, social and sustainability lending criteria we also provide renewable energy options, but I do not think it is something councils will take up in scale.

SOPHIA LI

Policy certainty and clarity is very important so everyone can get on with investment decisions. But there are also supply chain issues and inflation. We are competing with the rest of the globe for materials and skilled workers, as well as the minerals needed to build batteries.

SOPHIA LI AGL ENERGY