Currency diversification norms shift

Supranational, sovereign and agency issuers traditionally tap a raft of global currency markets. Changing conditions make the currency makeup of overall funding a dynamic factor, and the market state of play in 2023 has created some unusual and divergent issuance patterns.

SWISS Some issuers have spoken about the challenge of getting the degree of currency diversification they want over the course of 2023. What have others been experiencing?

AINSLEY Euros is up significantly in our year-to-date funding mix, at 65 per cent compared with less than 60 per cent this time last year. Risk events, especially in the US with the regional bank crisis and the debt ceiling debate, have made it quite difficult for us to raise huge volume in the US dollar market. Therefore, it is no surprise that the US dollar share is lower than it was at the same time last year.

Sterling is not the easiest market at the moment. Our issuance in this currency is much lower than it was this time last year.

The Australian dollar is the star currency of the year. We have raised almost A$5 billion (US$3.3 billion) in the Kangaroo market. This is already the fourth most successful Australian dollar year ever for KfW [Bankengruppe] and it has offset the lower volume we have been able to raise in sterling. We have a very broad currency mix. We can still do niche currencies, even if less so than in other years.

DORE We had a fantastic year. Our fiscal year ends 30 June and we will finish at approximately US$43 billion across 20 currencies. Though less than the 25-plus currencies we funded during our last fiscal year, we did manage to issue in all the core currencies except sterling. This is the first time in many years that sterling is not on our list of issuance markets.

For IBRD [International Bank for Reconstruction and Development – World Bank] US dollars remains our largest source of funding followed by euros. But in the case of IDA [International Development Association], euros is the largest source of funding. This year, we did a similar percentage of our funding in these two currencies as last year. We also saw strong demand across many emerging market currencies.

HELLERUP The noncore dollar market is open but the issue in markets like sterling, Australian dollars and New Zealand dollars has been the cross-currency swap. The US dollar market has been the cheapest currency for us.

However, we want diversification so if we have to pay one or two basis points to issue in other markets, we will. We don’t want to end up with 80 per cent of our funding in US dollars. We view these other markets as a diversification play rather than as arbitrage markets.

ANDREA DORE

We would love to be back issuing in the sterling market. In the recent past, at least 10 per cent of our funding for the year was done in this currency. From 10 per cent to zero this fiscal year is a significant drop.

ANDREA DORE WORLD BANK

DAVISON Pascale, do these experiences chime with bank issuance outcomes?

DOREY We issued in Australian dollars this year and last, and we definitely got more demand this year. This year we issued at similar levels but increased duration, which shows the increased demand.

With market capacity overall, on the currency front we have had a similar experience to some of the other issuers here today. Euros has been more interesting – last summer we issued our first euro trade since 2020.

For a few years we were trying to issue in euros to diversify away from US dollars, while now it is the reverse: we are trying to find timing to issue in US dollars because pricing in this market has lagged other currencies. US dollars is where we have traditionally had the deepest amount of demand, but it has been less interesting on a relative value basis.

Regarding sterling, pricing has been roughly in line with euros or possibly slightly back. But there is not the depth of demand – in fact, it seems to have reduced a little since last year. As a result, we have not been active in the sterling market even though it is one of the core currencies we look at.

There is very different pricing across the capital stack, though. At the moment, the differential between secured spreads and unsecured ones is at the wider end.

DAY Is the sterling problem volatility or the absolute level? If I like UK duration, supranational spreads to swap are actually very attractive.

DORE Sterling spreads are very attractive so it isn’t a lack of demand but other factors, such as the high level of volatility and the cost of issuing in sterling versus other currencies.

The volatility has made it more difficult to determine primary issuance pricing and we have been seeing huge pricing differentials across the various banks. We would love to be back issuing in the sterling market. In the recent past, at least 10 per cent of our funding for the year was done in this currency. From 10 per cent to zero this fiscal year is a significant drop.