BARRY Lower interest rates and AI-generated mortgage origination.

GUESDE Two years ago, I said we would be talking about green ABS [asset- backed securities] and green warehousing. Next year, I think the conversation will be about dedicated warehousing to cover these very specific types of deals and how to adapt warehouses for this evolution.

Perhaps there will also be talk about consolidation – such as joining with nonbanks that bring new assets and technology.

MARSDEN A pronounced global recession and the entrance of a significant disrupter in the consumer finance space.

TOGNON ESG [environmental, social and governance] disclosure and AI- powered underwriting. Perhaps there will be a refinancing wave, too, as interest rates start to make their way down.

O AUSTIN The macro piece will be interesting in the next 12 months. We have had strong funding markets for a while now and this has been positive for issuers. There are a few headwinds ahead – we will see how this plays out over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, alternative funding sources and diversity of funding will be key to longevity and growing beyond the A$15-20 billion (US$10.1-13.5 billion) mark.

BROWN Potential consolidation in the sector, green- and ESG-linked issuance, and increased reporting and disclosures.

BELL I won’t repeat what’s been said but I’ll add another for interest’s sake. The US election remains a major market event, and there are still geopolitical, fiscal and inflation risks that could make US Federal Reserve actions less certain and lead to sustained volatility in market pricing.

FISCHER ESG will be a bigger theme as most of us start reporting.

AZZOPARDI I hope we’re not talking about how war has affected funding markets, but it does worry me. Second, globally, it feels like there is a lot of excess liquidity and I’m not sure how this will play out in funding markets. I think we will have a buoyant origination market. The trajectory is good for our sector and I’m optimistic about it, so long as there’s no recession.

RIEDEL Macroprudential restrictions and the move to slow the growth in new investment lending. It is not too long ago that APRA [the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority] established lending restrictions on the banks and I think there is a chance we may be talking about the same issues again.

J AUSTIN I agree with the four major bank chief executives that the regulatory pendulum has swung too far and, together with AFCA [the Australian Financial Complaints Authority], is weighted to the consumer now. A more balanced approach is required. The current regime is slowly choking off financial services to the consumer and increasingly facilitating only the very wealthy.