Infrastructure investment priorities and a bigger capital markets role
Australia’s infrastructure investment pipeline is significant, especially given the context of digitalisation and energy transition. But project financing and debt capital markets have never been the easiest of bedfellows. KangaNews and Assured Guaranty hosted a group of infrastructure industry leaders in October to discuss the domestic and offshore financing environment, and investor relations. A wider-ranging conversation covered technology, international examples, delivery and financing methods, and sustainability.
GRID FOCUS
Craig Australia’s infrastructure investment pipeline is currently valued at A$230 billion (US$148.7 billion) over five years and is only likely to grow in order to keep up with the country’s ageing and growing population, changing needs in the energy sector and others. What are the main priorities?
ANJUM Historically, the grid was built around centralised coal baseload assets. However, as we are now starting to see real penetration of renewables we are creating what I’d describe as a hybrid energy sector. It is great that we have centralised, utility-scale renewables, but we also have decentralised energy assets such as rooftop solar and batteries, and a grid that was not built to support this type of model.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) estimates a required spend of A$20 billion on transmission upgrades alone – prior to the cost of building enough renewable assets – to get us to 80 per cent renewables in the NEM [national electricity market] by 2030.
CHEUNG In order to complete the transition to a more renewable energy future, we need to complete the transmission backbone, or what we like to call the ‘super highway’.
However, we need to build 2,500 kilometres of essential transmission lines in NSW [New South Wales] alone. This is new transmission lines to connect renewable generation to the grid as well as ensuring strong interconnection to our neighbouring states for system stability and security.
WHITEHEAD I agree that transmission is a priority and AEMO has estimated that Australia requires around 10,000 kilometres of new grid by 2050. To put this into context, Perth to Sydney and back is around 8,000 kilometres.
This is a colossal investment and it is clear that everyone needs to pitch in. This means governments alongside the private sector – private investors and contractors – will be needed, as will finding the most efficient means for execution at scale.
One example is the renewable energy zones that are being developed by the NSW government. These projects are using a mix between a public-private partnership (PPP) and a regulated asset model to build out the grid.
YU I agree with the need to build a new grid as the enabler for renewable energy generation. The other component is storage, because without it the grid will not be able to sustain the amount of renewable energy being added once the baseload comes off. Pumped hydro is going to be extremely important and, as Isabelle says, how governments and the private sector work together will be crucial.
CHEUNG The majority of our infrastructure will be greenfield because renewable energy generators are by nature more dispersed geographically. We need to connect the super highway to the various parts of the grid as well as to the other states, to provide better access to renewable generation across the NEM, improve the flow of power across the states and ensure more reliable energy supply.
There is already a substantial pipeline of greenfield development projects. For example, Transgrid has EnergyConnect under delivery at the moment. This is a 900-kilometre transmission line that connects NSW to South Australia and Victoria. It is part of what we call our “southern backbone”, which includes various other key projects that are either under delivery, in early works or about to commit to the delivery phase.
This includes the Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West) as well as HumeLink, which connects Wagga Wagga, Bannaby and Maragle. Humelink would allow new energy sources to come online, including unlocking the full capacity of the expanded Snowy Hydro scheme.
Craig While greenfield is sometimes the only option, what is the state of play with existing infrastructure that can be repurposed?
KOPPENOL I’m not intimately familiar with all the existing stock in Australia. But we have taken this approach in the Netherlands – the idea of renovating and reusing as much as possible was very popular in the past. But now we are increasingly finding that to renovate a building in a way that is useful and sustainable for future generations is not the best way – sometimes one has to break it down and start over.
Gribble What are the investment priorities for the broadband network?
TRIGONA NBN Co’s network was declared built in December 2020. But this was only the start. Now it’s about rolling out fibre upgrades to increase the available speed and capacity of the NBN network for households, businesses and communities across Australia. Fitting with the theme of renovation and reuse, some upgrades will be greenfield projects but the majority are existing infrastructure.
Many premises still have fibre to the node, but we are moving to fibre to the premises. By the end of 2025, more than 10 million premises – or up to 90 per cent of homes and businesses across the fixed-line network – will have access to full fibre connections able to deliver speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second. This is all about making the network future-ready and supporting the nation’s growing data demands.
As well as pushing fibre deeper into the fixed-line network, we are also improving and extending fixed wireless coverage and satellite capabilities, and enabling a more reliable and resilient network through investments in network capacity and security.
We also need to take into consideration the number of devices being used in the home. At the moment, the average Australian home has 22 connected devices and this is expected to rise to more than 30 in the next couple of years – to about 40 on average by 2030.
There is growing use of smart appliances such as air conditioners, washing machines and fridges, energy saving smart home products, smart security surveillance and even smart home pet care devices. The rise of emerging technologies like generative AI will further increase broadband demand.
These emerging technologies rely heavily on high speed, low latency broadband connections. We continue to invest in network upgrades so the right technology is ready for the industry and our nation, when it is needed.
Craig Speaking of technology, in what ways are companies starting to think about new and emerging technologies? Also, how seriously are they actively using AI – and what does it mean for capex?
CHEUNG AI is a growing area of focus. We are investigating it and considering some initial trials, including Microsoft Copilot. Our networks and operations teams are always exploring ways we might use innovative technologies and services as alternatives to building more poles and wires, as well as to drive efficiencies and safety in our operations.
One example is the trial of cutting-edge drone technology to conduct 3D laser surveys – so we can detect vegetation growth in the vicinity of our transmission network to deliver efficiencies in bushfire preparation.
We are also trialling advanced robotic technology to make work on transmission lines safer. This will help reduce the need for our people to work at heights when replacing ageing conductors, given some of our transmission lines are across challenging terrain including dangerous and remote locations.
TRIGONA NBN is harnessing the benefits of emerging technology to make the network future-ready, increase the resilience and reliability of the network, and transform our approach to enhancing customer experience.
We are embracing AI and automation across the organisation to help drive productivity gains. We have introduced a multichannel AI chatbot that helps customers quickly find answers to their questions through digital self-service across NBN’s digital channels, and we are exploring the use of AI to monitor and optimise network performance.
FINANCING OPTIONS
Craig Compared with offshore jurisdictions, how well does Australia execute its infrastructure projects? Are there any countries we can and should be studying for direction on best practice?
WITTEY We have a great regulatory and legal system, and Australia is an attractive destination for global investors. Considering the extent of the renewable energy transformation we have gone through, it is not surprising that global players are circling the Australian market.
Traditionally, Australia has had a strong PPP market and this has been good for debt investors. However, given the evolution in infrastructure investment in emerging technologies, these will require a different funding model. Offshore capital may be useful in this regard. Before the financial crisis, there were credit wraps on bonds and these helped make some investment decisions.
We are at a pivotal point now, because some new technologies are not traditionally bankable. This is where the Assured Guaranty business is going to be instrumental in supporting projects to get off the ground.
It is important to speed up the approval process to ensure capital from offshore investors is not lost. For example, renewable energies can be connected to the grid relatively quickly in Spain while the lag time is a lot longer in Australia.
It is also a two-way street: Australian superannuation funds are investing in infrastructure projects offshore, based on attractive risk-reward dynamics and potential returns.
GRIBBLE Australia has an increased need for renewable transmission and generation assets, and we require a higher volume of capital to deliver them. The financial guarantees Assured Guaranty provides underscore various financing solutions, for example through certainty of interest payments that allow for various funding alternatives, as well as greater fluidity of financing through domestic and international investment funds.
We are an insurance company so we provide financial certainty and help to de-risk projects. Capital-intensive projects in the renewables space are a place for us to play, perhaps by supporting different tenors across projects. The banks like to fund the shorter term but we can find financing opportunities for different investors and pools of capital at longer tenor.
Many available projects have big volume and, as well as offering opportunities for us, I also believe there are opportunities for foreign companies that look at Australia. There is so much that is good about Australia, including its triple-A rating and the number and the scale of big-ticket infrastructure projects available. We need to make sure we are providing the financing opportunities that support risk-return profile so domestic investors, including super funds and banks, as well as international capital can feel comfortable to invest.
“There is so much that is good about Australia, including its triple-A rating and the number and the scale of big-ticket infrastructure projects available. We need to make sure we are providing the financing opportunities that support risk-return profile so domestic investors as well as international capital can feel comfortable to invest.”
MANDIC Some of our offshore counterparts have created structures with investment-grade profiles and guarantees to allow projects to be accessible to institutional investors during the construction stage.
GRIBBLE This is a good way of looking at it. New infrastructure requires the construction stage before getting to the operational stage, and a financial guarantee supports an investment-grade profile. This is helpful for institutional investors.
WHITEHEAD From a greenfield developer and equity investor perspective, larger projects that require billions in capital for the construction phase are more likely to justify broader sources of financing – for example guarantee and capital markets products. If we are assessing alternative financing sources, we want competitive pricing and terms relative to mini-perm bank debt. At the end of the day, on a PPP we want to win the bid and provide best value for money for the government client.
The second thing we are looking for – and I think debt capital market products are starting to improve here – is agility and responsiveness: to facilitate submitting a bid then being able to quickly turn around amendments during the delivery phase, and to work collaboratively with the issuer in order to complete the project on time.
Gribble How long will the Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport project take to deliver, from start to finish?
WHITEHEAD The PPP component of the Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport project, which we are currently developing, closed at the end of 2022 and is scheduled to open in 2026 – at the same time as the airport. This timeline is quite typical for large, linear types of infrastructure projects in which it is more likely capital markets will have a role to play.
For smaller projects, like PPP schools or social housing, the delivery timeframe might be shorter – for example, 18 months – and the lower capital requirements may attract different types of investors.
Craig How do these kinds of time frames affect financing options?
YU The certainty and timing of financing is a relatively small component of multibillion dollar projects. Bonds and debt capital market products are not likely to be helpful during the bidding phase given the time it takes to select a preferred bidder and then to reach financial close.
It is equally challenging for traditional bank financing that might have debt and equity commitments tied up for a couple of years. It can be costly, and it makes bonds and debt capital market products more challenging.
Some overseas models feature projects and processes where the financing is raised before the preferred bidder is selected. This is something the Australian market could consider to reduce financing costs.
SAMSON There are different types of financing for different stages, and having more options will be very helpful. Banks will want to finance some assets but there will be others that don’t fit into the balance sheet. The more options and flexibility we have the better.
Gribble Rothesay Life can lend for up to 30 years, which is suited to infrastructure debt. What types of projects is Rothesay financing?
MANDIC Rothesay is relatively new to the Australian market. It is a defined benefit pension fund based in the UK, so our liabilities are long-dated and we aim to match this on the asset side. We are focused on strong investment-grade debt and typically prefer 10-30 year tenor, which as you say is relatively unique in the Australian market. Therefore, social infrastructure is a sweet spot for us.
We can provide financing in Australian dollars in fixed- and floating-rate format, which can otherwise be quite challenging to procure if an issuer is seeking 25-30 year debt. We can also offer amortising debt, which again is quite unique.
We have a role to play in what is a significant education piece for debt capital markets. For example, we are currently working on a 25-year amortising financing solution, to match the 25-year availability payments for the social and affordable housing sector. The current senior lending solution comprises a 15-year bullet followed by a 10-year bullet, which leaves the projects with refinancing risk.
Further, despite the bullet structure, the loan still requires amortisation. This means projects are putting aside funds in an amortisation account paying nominal interest income – but they are paying the coupon on the total debt limit, creating a negative carry.
Craig By building the transmission super highway, one could imagine that Transgrid’s triple-B ratings may come under pressure. How can this be mitigated while at the same time ensuring critical projects proceed?
CHEUNG Transgrid has been rated at Baa2 by Moody’s Ratings since 2016, and we have recently secured an additional rating of BBB with stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings. We are committed to maintaining our rating.
However, the regulatory framework was set up for steady state, business as usual operations and was not really designed for the major step-change we need to embark on to facilitate the green transition.
We receive a return on capital for what we earn on regulated revenue – or, more specifically, a return on our regulated asset base – and a return of capital, which effectively recovers the depreciation charge. During the construction phase of our major projects, we don’t receive the return of capital until the assets are commissioned for use. This means we don’t receive sufficient revenue during the construction phase, which puts our FFO [funds from operation] to net debt ratio under pressure.
We can resolve this by contributing additional equity during the construction phase, but this only generates a cost of debt return under the regulatory framework. This creates financeability issues for new investments.
The government has recognised this issue and has set aside A$20 billion through the Rewiring the Nation fund, which is administered by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
This initiative provides concessional loan funding to priority transmission projects essential to the achievement of the government’s ambitions. It also enables us to seek funding for some of our major projects using this concessional loan to bridge the gap. It also ensures we can maintain our credit metrics and provide a pathway for our security holders to earn the benchmark rate of return on equity.
We are also working with regulators to address underlying issues within the regulatory framework. This has in part been recognised by the Australian Energy Market Commission introducing in the form of a rule change adopted in 2024 to address financeability for large transmission projects that are set out in the optimal development path from AEMO’s ISP [integrated system plan].
We are still working through the practicalities, but we believe the rule change will help address some of the financing issues in our major projects. Under the rule change, a transmission network service provider can request an adjustment to the depreciation profile for actionable ISP projects if a financeability issue was determined. This effectively accelerates depreciation to bring cash flows forward.
Superannuation and the Canadian lead
Comparisons are often drawn between Australia and Canada, and this extends into the infrastructure investment sector. In fact, Canada has led in some areas Australia may wish to follow, including the fact that its pension system was an early mover in infrastructure equity and debt.
WHITEHEAD I think it is a relatively good example. Australia and Canada are where we have the most projects at Plenary Group. Province of Ontario is a leader in social infrastructure projects and on how to execute them in the most efficient way.
This said, we cover a wider range of countries these days and we are involved in projects all around the world, including some that adopt innovative financing structures not yet seen in Australia or Canada.
WITTEY The pension system in Canada was a first mover in infrastructure equity and debt investment. It is a model others wish to emulate.
WITTEY There is direct investment from super funds, largely as equity or via private debt. They use external managers to invest, domestically and internationally, but the bottom line is that funds under management continue to grow exponentially and the sector is investing offshore to diversify and deploy these funds.
YU One of the challenges for Australian super funds is benchmarking requirement. Some super funds are starting to question what they do with some of the core infrastructure in their portfolios if they are not delivering a relatively competitive return overall. They may exit and invest in sectors or assets with higher risk to get a higher return.
Whether this is the best use of superannuation money is up for debate. It is also unclear whether super funds have the expertise to fund greenfield projects.
WITTEY One aspect the sector is mindful of is members coming into retirement age and the resulting liquidity needed for funding pensions. This is different from the growth phase. The funds that support members of an older age group may have different liquidity needs influencing their investment decisions.
PUBLIC, PRIVATE OR MIXED MODEL
Craig We have discussed the areas where it is harder for capital markets to provide financing – specifically the early phase of projects. Is it possible in a PPP structure for the government to step in for the construction phase and then step away?
KOPPENOL In some cases, capital contributions are coming in from clients to make projects more affordable. But in traditional PPPs the construction phase continues to be funded via debt and equity.
YU Allocation during the construction phase is a key risk in larger greenfield projects. Under the traditional PPP model in Australia, governments pass the risk during construction onto the private sector. A lot of it then gets passed onto EPC [engineering, procurement and construction] or D&C [design and construct] contractors.
There are live discussions about contractors being in risk-off mode and governments are still trying to find a balance for the best way to bring risk-allocation or sharing methods to the market.
On the social housing side, clearly the goal is to build more housing. If it is possible to do so at lower cost it should be possible to build more – which should in turn encourage smaller contractors that don’t carry a huge corporate cost to enter the market. The problem then is that debt and equity private capital must get comfortable with the counterparty risk. The solution may be for government to play a role in the construction phase.
WHITEHEAD On smaller social infrastructure projects like housing, there is definitely a right-sizing issue whereby the projects might not be best placed for a large, tier-one contractor. It might be that a bundle of smaller contractors would be better placed to efficiently deliver the asset, in which case government and capital should work with the construction sector to facilitate this participation where appropriate.
On the larger projects, I respectfully disagree with Laurel about the risk allocation models we have recently been seeing. There is a lot more targeted risk sharing and it has addressed some of the issues Laurel mentioned.
To use the PPP component of Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport as an example, there were some elements where it was difficult for contractors to provide a fixed price up front. This was especially related to station design and interface with local councils, which were trickier to define until the project was further progressed.
What was agreed on this project was to adopt a targeted risk-sharing regime, where the parties had an opportunity to work more collaboratively toward a final price and scope for the uncertain elements, after the main contract was signed and reached financial close.
We have witnessed similar risk-sharing approaches being considered in relation to geotechnical and ground contamination risk. This has been quite well received by the contractor market, and by debt and equity investors. It is starting to be spoken about internationally as something to replicate – there is a lot of interest in how NSW and Victoria have solved some of these issues.
As others have noted, some of these solutions came about or were accelerated during COVID-19 – when the market was at a severe stress point. Innovation often comes about during a period of disruption, and this is a classic case.
KOPPENOL This is a good example of where the rest of the world can learn from Australia. Many contractors in the Netherlands are saying no to a lump sum fixed price on PPPs and on the DBFM [design, build, finance, maintain] method – so at the moment there are no PPPs underway and we don’t foresee any in the near future.
There is a big pipeline in Belgium, which is mainly filled with public funding shortages. But contractors are really starting to say no. Meanwhile, the developments at state and federal level here in Australia, and in New Zealand with more risk-sharing models, are a very good development.
Gribble Is Australia’s structure of having federal and state governments both having responsibility for infrastructure delivery more supportive of this?
WHITEHEAD I think this is a real strength for the Australian form of government relative to countries that only procure infrastructure at a single level. Australia and Canada have strong state and provincial infrastructure procurement bodies that have allowed some experimentation from which other states and provinces can learn.
Also, because political cycles occur differently, it is possible to even out the ebbs and flows at national level. There is less of this moderating effect in countries with a more centralized structure, like the UK or New Zealand, or in the US where, despite the federal structure, a lot of infrastructure investment is procured at the municipal authority level – meaning it can be hard to track consistently.
State and federal government can work together on some of Australia’s nation building projects – whether airports or energy transition. Western Sydney Airport and its supporting infrastructure is a good example of where federal, state and local government collaboration has worked to produce what should be a brilliant development for western Sydney.
Gribble The idea that the pandemic supported innovation is interesting. How much of the positive developments on delivery come about because of COVID-19 and how we have exited the pandemic era? At the same time, could governments shoulder more financial risk?
YU The ITC [incentivised target cost] model contract is becoming more popular, which demonstrates that federal and state governments are showing willingness to share the risk. It is difficult to say whether the pandemic was the driving force but it is certainly the case that since COVID-19 – when escalation was extremely high for a long period – contractors with fixed-price contracts could not survive.
It would have been difficult for governments to stand back and not address some of the supply chain issues, given the need to maintain a pipeline and for players to continue to participate in the market.
It is important to ensure that the sharing regime is not abused, which is where I could imagine federal or state Treasury being dissatisfied with the level of certainty promised. Once they start to revisit the model, they may decide to take a different approach. Individual players need to be responsible.
WHITEHEAD I agree. This happens in cycles – where the social and economic pressures of the day affect infrastructure delivery. Government is now recognising that it needs to be laser focused and targeted on shared risk, or on whatever support it is providing, in an environment where balance sheets are tightly constrained.
If there is a particular commodity that is volatile due to a supply-chain issue outside the parties’ control, rather than having flexibility for the pricing of the entire project there can be an indexation mechanism for the specific commodity or the procuring authority can otherwise isolate the problem that is causing the market issue.
Another example is contamination. For example, PFAS [per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances] has been a recent focus of environmental regulatory institutions – and for good reason. If government adopts an agreed baseline – founded on a reasonable amount of surveying of a site – then has a sharing mechanism for over- and underperformance depending on what the contractor actually finds, government can better balance price certainty with value for money.
The NSW and Victorian infrastructure procurement agencies have been very good at recognising that, if they want to procure major infrastructure, they require a nuanced project-specific approach in order to drive the best outcome for and demonstrate the best use of taxpayer dollars.
YU In the context of transmission network projects, a lot of large components need to be procured because, again, Australia is competing globally, and to get all the necessary components ‘into the slot’ is extremely difficult. As a result, governments are starting to consider how they can change procurement processes in ways that allow a deposit to be put down to secure slots. Establishing a national approach to this would be ideal.
GRIBBLE I was at an infrastructure conference in Melbourne last week at which a chief executive was talking about the difficulties of procuring some items that are only available to buy globally with a long order lead time – often a couple of years in advance. I am not sure how companies are supposed to pay for this without putting additional pressure on their balance sheets.
YU Yes – because they don’t earn the revenue before they build the project.
GRIBBLE I had always assumed that cranes and big equipment in ports and the like would be delivered to Australia and constructed here. But I found out recently that they come fully constructed on their own vessel.
YU The logistics of getting equipment to site from a port was also overlooked for a long period. Now it’s a huge focus because things like turbines are getting bigger and our roads are not equipped to cope with transportation.
Gribble Taking all these things together, what do participants think is the optimal role state and federal governments should play in critical infrastructure?
WHITEHEAD One of the things federal and state governments around Australia can do to encourage infrastructure investment is to put out a reliable pipeline of projects. This would ensure there is adequate deal flow to keep the most talented people and specialised skill sets we need to deliver grid transmission or urban mass transit in Australia.
This is something Australia, and in particular NSW and Victoria, has done well over the last 15 years. We are starting to see other countries, like the US with the Inflation Reduction Act, the Middle East as it diversifies away from fossil fuels and the growing markets in South-East Asia, starting to compete for these resources more intensely than in the past.
In this context, I think there is always the opportunity to do more. I am sure there will be plenty of infrastructure investors lining up to help Brisbane deliver the 2032 Olympics, for example.
While Australia has done well historically in procuring infrastructure, future demands are constantly changing. We are hopeful that government can adapt accordingly to ensure opportunities keep coming in the new sectors that will be key to the next decade or two of project development in Australia.
SAMSON Banks are actively monitoring projects that require funding and choosing where they play – whether this be domestically or offshore – and whether a specific project has a role in the portfolio.
KOPPENOL It is incredibly expensive to prepare a good unsolicited proposal in Australia. Legislation or some kind of government support to make it more cost effective would be very useful.
Craig Why is it so expensive?
KOPPENOL It is mostly the cost of labour. Certain asset values are substantially more expensive relative to similar assets in Europe, even just to undertake due diligence.
YU There are areas where I believe further support would be helpful. For example, wind and solar projects can be done without government support but there is a role for governments to play for long-duration storage, in encouraging developers and ensuring they receive an appropriate return. It doesn’t have to be a government procured process for this to happen.
WITTEY Governments can play a role in revamping our secondary and tertiary education syllabuses to position our children better for the future and help avoid some of the labour challenges we are facing today.
GRIBBLE I agree, particularly with higher education: it is important that universities are meeting the changing requirements of the sector.
YU Community planning is another area that developers find quite challenging: single projects take a considerable time get approvals.
Gas ignites debate
The role of gas is still up for debate in energy transition, bringing about discussion of energy security, nuclear energy and potential future taxes. There is also a concern about the role of critical gas supply to Australia in the short term.
YU The view from debt and equity investors is different. The gas network is built on existing infrastructure so a lot of the players in the gas network are starting to talk about how to make it more sustainable.
One possibility is introducing a portion of hydrogen into the network, repurposing it and making gas network activities more sustainable. What we would like to better understand is the capital view on supporting companies on this journey.
ANJUM The classification of gas as a transition fuel generally depends on the jurisdiction of the investor. Until such time as long-duration storage technology becomes economically viable, gas peaking will likely be required to provide support to a largely intermittent, renewable asset base.
Clarity on classification will be key in investment decision-making. From a developer perspective, choosing hydrogen-ready, fast-start gas peakers will probably de-risk some of the access to capital issues.
MANDIC Gas-related assets will be very specific to each transaction and a lot of due diligence goes into these opportunities to ensure we are comfortable.
WITTEY This also brings in the debate about national energy security. This is a critical part of the conversation. In Australia, gas is playing a role in the transition and it has taken nuclear off the table.
Europe relies relatively heavily on nuclear energy and is developing more, as is the US and parts of Asia. Australia also needs to think very carefully about energy security as it is a driver of economic growth. All the new technologies that are coming through, especially batteries and hydrogen, will happen over time. But we are not there today.
We need to look at what other governments around the world are doing to bring infrastructure online. It doesn’t necessarily mean we have to give the same tax concessions as the US, but governments are showing support for the infrastructure sector in various ways. Engaging in an open debate could help investors feel more comfortable and speed up some investment decisions. This would strengthen our position as a country on the international stage.
YU What we view as available in the domestic market is a concern. There is starting to be talk about developing new LNG import terminals, which demonstrates there is a shortage.
If there is an understanding that there is a role for gas in the energy transition, the discussion becomes a financial one. Do we export it all or do we keep a cut for the domestic market?
FACTORING IN SUSTAINABILITY
Anjum There is an estimated US$1.6 trillion of sustainable investment globally. Is there a risk of a kind of flight to quality whereby investors are increasingly focused on established companies with very clearly articulated environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies? If this happens, would it disadvantage independent power producers or developers and make it challenging for Australia to achieve its national target?
WITTEY I think it will get harder when we start to focus more on scope-three emissions. There is a lot more data and analysis on scope-three in Europe, while in Australia we are only just embarking on it. The introduction of mandatory climate reporting next year should help. But it will also increase cost for SMEs, which don’t have access to the same type of information larger firms have.
We support our clients globally on their energy transition journeys, which is why we have developed the green weighting factor (GWF). The GWF is directed at driving the climate and environmental transition of the entire balance sheet. It is an in-house mechanism that links analytical capital allocation to the sustainability of each financing. Every loan that goes onto our balance sheet goes through this, whether it be for a large or small company.
SAMSON A lot more education needs to happen to hit the targets we have put in place for 2030 and 2050. In the short term, it will drive a big difference between the haves and have nots. Climate reporting will help, but only in the medium term. In the short term, only larger companies will be making disclosures – and this is where capital will flow.
Regulators are actively monitoring the market, so greenwashing fears are real for issuers and investors. There is a clear risk in the short term, although I think it will be solved over time as smaller companies start to receive more support and education to develop transition plans.
Craig The labelled sustainability debt market – including green, social and sustainability (GSS) bonds and, especially, sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) – has been slow to develop momentum in the Australian credit market. Will this have an impact on financing the infrastructure task?
SAMSON It is definitely getting harder. There has been an uptick in green loans but a huge drop-off in sustainability-linked loans (SLLs) owing to challenges with setting KPIs. There is resistance by all parties.
Investor standards are very high – as they should be – but not all companies are set up to be able to report on KPIs to a sufficient standard. Some KPIs have also been criticised for not being ambitious enough. Boards have to sign off on SLLs but fewer are doing so and there has therefore been a major drop-off in SLLs in the market.
Having said this, there has been an uptick in green loans as well as loans that aren’t labelled but that are achieving ESG outcomes. I think we have to get past the labelling aspect. Just because something isn’t labelled doesn’t mean it isn’t achieving an ESG outcome.
CHEUNG Regardless of whether we have a green label on our debt or not, the majority of our investment supports grid decarbonisation. We haven’t set up a sustainable debt framework yet and we need to do a bit more work on systems, reporting and governance. But we will continue on our sustainability strategy and journey.
We are also working through the ongoing reporting requirements so they are in line with what investors are expecting, to ensure there is no potential reputational risk and that we have the correct governance processes in place.
ANJUM From an equities perspective, there is always a risk of short-termism – earnings and dividend pressure, which management needs to balance with longer-term capital investment.
Government policy is the same: for change to be meaningful, policy must be long-term, enduring and not limited to the next election cycle. I think one of the biggest challenges is balancing short-term needs with long-term strategic objectives.
WHITEHEAD As a developer and investor, we view sustainability as more than a regulatory concern. It is a differentiating factor when we are bidding for large government contracts.
We have green loans or SLLs financing some of our projects but often we need to go above and beyond the base requirement – whether this be green accreditation or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander workforce participation – in order to be selected as a proponent for a project.
It is a good development that government can set out goals in this regard, to harness the ingenuity of the market to work out how to appropriately achieve these goals for a particular project.
KOPPENOL There are a lot more green loans in the market and there is a direct impact on equity investors in the form of reporting as well as resourcing and other capabilities. There is also the new taxonomy coming through. These are good developments, as we want to be a sustainable infrastructure investor. It is a very new requirement and one that we are currently implementing and learning.
MANDIC There is increasing focus and growing scrutiny on ESG aspects. The focus has moved past labelling: investors want to understand what a business is doing and what actions and targets are appropriate.
TRIGONA NBN has A$7 billion of use-of-proceeds (UOP) green bonds outstanding. We will not consider issuing SLBs as we do not want the performance of the bond to be linked to KPIs that may be difficult to achieve.
A lot of corporate issuers are not convinced SLBs are delivering a certain outcome. I have spoken with several corporate treasurer peers who are comfortable with the green-bond format but will not contemplate SLLs or SLBs.
The UOP [use of proceeds] green bond is a well-trodden path provided the assets are defined, and investors are comfortable with this format. Global investors’ feedback is that they look through assets to ascertain what we have done as a company more broadly. If we can demonstrate this, we are achieving your sustainability goals – whether they are social purpose or energy efficiency.
Craig AGL Energy needs to raise A$20 billion by 2036 for new generation and firming capacity. Sustainability-linked funding would seem to be a natural fit. But is AGL one of the companies that is not convinced by the pros and cons of this type of structure?
ANJUM We need to get right the balance between ensuring adequate funding for ongoing operations and growth. There is a shift away from sustainability-linked finance and toward increased and ongoing investor engagement to ensure investors understand AGL’s transition strategy. This is helping them understand that they are still funding AGL’s transition even though a particular transaction may be unlabelled.
Core businesses need to be funded to undergo the transition and therefore it is the overarching transition strategy of a business that is critical. I suspect that, going forward, we will use a range of funding instruments, labelled and unlabelled, while really selling the central decarbonisation story.
Gribble Australia is competing internationally for capital to finance the considerable investment required in renewables. To what extent is this a challenge?
ANJUM We have heard from investors that there is a lot of capital to be deployed with a very strong emphasis on ESG and sustainability. This is a key tailwind for Australia as we have a natural advantage when it comes to renewable resources.
However, to ensure that Australia meets its targets, my concern remains that access to capital should be healthy for all market participants and not just the biggest players.
YU There is a lot of consolidation in Australia between smaller developers that have built a pipeline and have assets in operation, and that are therefore beginning to engage in M&A activity and bring longer-term equity into the vehicle. To Rudy’s point, the larger end of town has access to capital and can start to operate more like a corporate entity than a single project. This includes starting to think about when to introduce bonds into the mix.
This still requires a process of education, including for credit rating agencies, about how to view this in an Australian context – because we are one of the first countries to have a merchant tail. Even so, we expect to see more liquidity and capital flow into the sector.
ANJUM I don’t disagree that the liquidity will be there, although I think there will be a price for certain types. Actually it’s the nonfinancial barriers – such as global supply-chain bottlenecks and skilled labour shortages – that I find more concerning.
When we are competing for capital globally, and even though Australia has a competitive advantage in renewables, we are still comparatively small scale and arguably don’t have the critical mass other countries do. We need to determine what we can do as a nation to attract these flows on a more viable basis.
“Core businesses need to be funded to undergo the transition and therefore it is the overarching transition strategy of a business that is critical. I suspect that, going forward, we will use a range of funding instruments, labelled and unlabelled, while really selling the central decarbonisation story.”
Craig The social component in ESG is an important consideration though one that is easy to overlook. Transgrid’s community engagement team consults with landowners and residents across its infrastructure network. What feedback comes from this community response?
CHEUNG Social licence and fostering a strong, positive relationship with local communities is a very important part of Transgrid’s strategy, while at the same time it is essential to enabling the transition to occur at the required pace and scale.
We actively engage with communities to understand their expectations and to try to deliver outcomes that are respectful of their needs. If I use VNI West as an example, based on consultation and feedback from the local community and landowners we have modified the preferred route for the project to stay clear of some existing homes and reduced the line length that was cutting across private property to get to public land. This reduces the number of affected land owners and improves the visual impact.
We adopt quite a transparent and community-centred selection process and we will continue to undergo consultations cross our other major projects, leveraging off the lessons we have learned from projects that are underway.
nonbank Yearbook 2024
KangaNews's eighth annual guide to the business and funding trends in Australia's nonbank financial-institution sector.